Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
Philip E. Tetlock (Editor), Aaron Belkin (Editor)
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Propaganda & Political Psychology

The Party Line: How The Media Dictates Public Opinion in Modern China

The Party Line: How The Media Dictates Public Opinion in Modern China
Doug Young (Author)
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Propaganda & Political Psychology

The first in-depth, authoritative discussion of the role of the press in China and the way the Chinese government uses the media to shape public opinion

China's 1.3 billion population may make the country the world's largest, but the vast majority of Chinese share remarkably similar views on these and a wide array of other issues, thanks to the unified message they get from tightly controlled state-run media. Official views are formed at the top in organizations like the Xinhua News Agency and China Central Television and allowed to trickle down to regional and local media, giving the appearance of many voices with a single message that is reinforced at every level. As a result, the Chinese are remarkably like-minded on a wide range of issues both domestic and foreign.

• Takes readers beyond China's economic miracle to show how the nation's massive state-run media complex not only influences public opinion but creates it
• Explores an array of issues, from Tibet and Taiwan to the environment and US trade relations, as seen through the lens of the Xinhua News Agency
• Tells the story of the official Xinhua News Agency along with its history and reporting over the years, as the foundation for telling the story

• Rank: #413309 in Books
• Published on: 2013-01-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.02" h x 6.50" w x .59" l, 1.15 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 256 pages

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
Philip E. Tetlock (Editor), Aaron Belkin (Editor)
(1)

New!: $55.00 $47.41 (as of 03/19/2013 19:29 PST)
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Propaganda & Political Psychology

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.

The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

• Rank: #1191804 in Books
• Published on: 1996-08-19
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.02" h x .79" w x 5.98" l, 1.15 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 344 pages

Description #1 by eBay - grandeagleretail:

Store Search search Title, ISBN and Author Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives by Philip E. Tetlock Estimated delivery 3-12 business days Format Paperback Condition Brand New Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics is an important book for all social scientists, not only those who study international relations. The introductory paper, outlining different ways of using counterfactual arguments, is likely to be

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